Reflections of Gateway Model U.N. Small Pox Epidemic Crisis
by Nora Kate Grady; Rosati-Kain High School, 2003
Link to Crisis ScenarioOn Saturday, February 16,
2002, students from the
Gateway Model United Nations saved the world from a possible smallpox
epidemic. After getting settled and having a short briefing we were given
the task of dealing with this horrendous possibility.
The event involved a little time travel; back to January first. That afternoon, a man who had flown from Hungary to Rome was diagnosed with smallpox upon his arrival in Rome at about 10:00 PM, and was quarantined. The plane had a total of ninety-two people on it. However, of these ninety-two, twenty-six had connecting international flights. All flew to major cities around the world, potentially increasing the contamination radius substantially. In the scenario, we were told that it was now 7:00 PM on January 2, about twenty-four hours since the infected man was identified.
We were also given background information on the actual disease. We were told that the disease will incubate for 12-14 days without showing any symptoms. During the final days of incubation the infected person experiences flu-like symptoms. Then, a rash similar to chicken pox appears on the chest and radiates to the face and extremities. The rash turns into sores in which the virus festers and breeds. These sores will scab over and the actual virus can only be transmitted by touching the sores or inhaling dust containing particles of dead skin from the scab of a smallpox sore. The disease is only transmittable when the sores are present. The information given also discussed vaccination and treatment of the disease. If a person is vaccinated before exposure or within 2 -3 days after exposure, then they will be immune to smallpox for up to 10 years, and if vaccinated within 4-5 days after exposure death will be prevented. However, it is unlikely if vaccination after this point will be very effective in fighting the disease. At this point in time, there are only 60 million doses of the vaccine world wide, and only 5 million of the special bifurcated needles used in vaccination are currently available. Also, the dilutant for the vaccine has deteriorated and is no longer usable. The cost of producing the estimated amount of vaccine required for an epidemic of this potential magnitude is astronomical.
There were many unknowns in this situation. It was unknown how long the man had smallpox sores, how many people he came in contact with before boarding the plane in Hungary, how many people he came in contact with before being diagnosed, and if any of the other passengers on the plane had been in contact with him long enough to be exhibiting symptoms. Other issues surrounding the situation were: funding for vaccination production, who should fund it, who would receive the vaccines, how to address the public, how to find the other passengers and crew members, and how to do it all with in the maximum of 5 days to prevent deaths. At this point, the larger group was divided into 3 small groups to each develop a plan for controlling the situation from different perspectives.
In reviewing the information given, my group decided that the man must have very recently developed the sores, or else he would have seen a doctor on his own. That would mean probably the only people exposed to the disease were those on the plane with him to Rome, and any people who came in contact with the interior of the plane after the flight concluded. Also, since there are up to 14 days before the disease is transmittable from the newly exposed people, there was no need to worry that some passengers got on connecting flights, except that it might make it harder to track them down. Because of this we decided that the best plan of action would be in the next 1-3 days to track down all of the passengers and crew members of the original flight; vaccinate them; issue a statement to the Hungarian government, the airline involved, and the Italian government saying that anyone else who has come in contact with the infected man in the days prior to his flight to Rome, and anyone who has since come in contact with the interior of the original plane should, as a precaution, be vaccinated. In addition, UN aid should be offered to the Hungarian government so that they may find the source of the man’s infection and properly dispose of it. It was also decided that since such a small number of vaccines were needed, the airline would be able to pay or even each individual would be able to pay for his or her own vaccination.
We concluded that, although the situation had potential to be an overwhelming epidemic, the given facts proved that the situation was containable before the disease could become transmittable in any of the exposed passengers. Once again it was Gateway Model UN to the rescue.